What are the Business Expectations for H1 2024, as CONFIDEX 10th Edition Commences

• The estimations expressed by managers in the Confidex study during the second half of 2023 largely proved to be more pessimistic than the actual economic performance.
• Managers and business professionals in Romania are invited to complete the 10th edition of the CONFIDEX index (link). Based on the received responses, the Business Environment Confidence Index in the national economy will be formulated for the first half of this year.

Bucharest, March 19, 2024 – IMPETUM Group has kicked off the 10th edition of the CONFIDEX study, the sole longitudinal study in Romania that, over the past four years, has been measuring the confidence of Romanian business professionals in the economy. Entrepreneurs and top executives from Romania are invited to contribute to the assessment of confidence in the Romanian economy by completing the CONFIDEX Edition 10 – Impetum Group Survey questionnaire by March 29th. (link: https://survey.impetumgroup.com/s/confidex-editia-10?ref=confidx9695)

“Launched four years ago, the CONFIDEX index has galvanized a community of nearly 3,000 business professionals, evolving into a sophisticated instrument for measuring managers’ confidence in the Romanian economy. However, beyond its measurement role, CONFIDEX, through its complex dataset derived from real economic activity, serves as a predictive tool for local economic trends,”said Andrei Cionca, CEO Impetum Group.

The preceding edition of the CONFIDEX study, conducted in S2 2023, revealed a decline in the business confidence index in the economy to 48.1%, down from 50.2%, the peak value of the index since its inception in 2020, recorded in the first semester of the previous year. This cautious optimism among Romanian managers coincided with several European states entering recession and significant tax reforms adopted by the Government, which sparked considerable concerns and pessimistic forecasts.

Managers’ expectations vs. economic reality

Despite 62% of the managers surveyed in the previous semester anticipating a downturn in the national economy, official figures on the evolution of key indicators in the domestic economy available to date do not substantiate this pessimistic outlook.

For instance, the apprehensions of the 59% of managers who predicted a depreciation of the Romanian currency (RON) against the euro did not materialize: the exchange rate remained stable from November 2023 onwards (according to the NBR). Similarly, concerns regarding the capital market were not echoed in the performance of the Bucharest Stock Exchange. While 35% of managers participating in the CONFIDEX study in the second semester of 2023 anticipated a downturn in the capital market, the BET index, the local exchange’s benchmark, surged by approximately 16% in the last six months (according to the BVB).

Simultaneously, according to data from the Romanian National Institute of Statistics for the end of the previous year, the Gross Domestic Product contracted by 0.5% in the last quarter of 2023 compared to the preceding quarter, aligning with the expectations of 37% of the surveyed managers. Inflation rates decreased at the close of the last year (6.61% in December 2023 compared to December 2022, down from 6.72% annual inflation in November 2023), before slightly increasing early this year (7.4% annual inflation in January 2024). Concerning inflation trends, 24% of respondents anticipated a decrease, 33% expected stagnation, while 43% foresaw an increase.

“Analyzing previous editions of the CONFIDEX study reveals a certain periodicity in how managers perceive economic conditions, which correlates with the timing of data collection throughout the year. Consequently, Romanian business professionals tend to exhibit more optimism in spring and greater pessimism in autumn, as winter approaches. This cautious outlook towards the economy motivates individuals to exercise prudence and pay closer attention to their business decisions,” added Andrei Cionca, CEO of Impetum Group.

he CONFIDEX index has reached its lowest level during the pandemic period, but gradually rebounded, attaining its highest level in the past three years (50.2) in the first semester of 2023, followed by a decline in the latter half of the year.

CONFIDEX, initiated by IMPETUM Group, has provided a comprehensive snapshot of the perceptions of Romanian business professionals, conducting an in-depth analysis of confidence in the economy for four years. By extrapolating trends, the company offers stakeholders a tool to better comprehend prevailing economic conditions and make informed decisions, thereby fostering a positive impact on the business landscape and society at large.

Impetum Group is the Romanian group that brings together capital, management and services, formed by bringing together under the same umbrella CITR, the leader of the insolvency market in Romania, ROCA Investments, a private equity solution that aims to consolidate and scale Romanian SMEs with potential, ROCA X, Venture Capital aimed at disruptive start-ups in the technology market, and Agista, a growth equity fund with a focus on companies that have demonstrated sustained growth with limited resources in their niche and are looking to accelerate their scaling to national and international.

Impetum Group aims to serve as a resource hub, maximizing business value by amalgamating specific business knowledge tailored to each stage of a company’s lifecycle (startup, growth crisis, distress), capital, synergies, cross-collaborations between complementary businesses, and a community of managers and entrepreneurs keen on actively contributing to the fostering of an entrepreneurial culture in Romania.

Please take a few moments to complete our questionnaire, which should only take about 15 minutes of your time: https://survey.impetumgroup.com/s/confidex-editia-10?ref=confidx9695